Price of chocolate to rise, sure as eggs

Cocoa futures have increased by 30pc since last June, peaking at almost £1,900 per tonne in early March, before moderating to around £1,850 per tonne by the end of last week.

“We’re seeing an increase in the consumption of cocoa and cocoa products in Asia, which is really changing the whole dynamic,” said Edward George, head of soft commodities research at Ecobank.

Production is expected to be hit by warm ocean weather from El Niño, and Commerzbank estimates it could result in a 100,000 tonnes cocoa deficit.

Mr George said El Niño will have a particularly negative effect on West African yields. “As it’s the most important producing region in the world, it is much more likely we’re going to see a larger deficit and that is definitely going to push up prices.”

The International Cocoa Organisation estimates that cocoa accounts for around 10pc of the average price of a chocolate bar, so a price increase could well translate to next year’s Easter eggs.

Chocolate manufacturers usually aim to keep prices steady by substituting cheaper ingredients if the price of one product rises.

But Mr George said that may not be entirely possible for cocoa price rises.

“You can’t play around with the amount of cocoa in chocolate too much, or you can no longer call it chocolate,” he said.

more