We can't afford not to talk about Scottish independence

Posted by Unknown on Saturday, June 14, 2014


Whether that relates to the fact that both continue to have significant Government-owned stakes – the future ownership of which there is little certainty of were the vote to go the way of the Scottish Nationalists – or the fact that they don't want to aggravate customers north of the border is unclear.


But neither bank has been willing to hint what it really thinks, despite both having undertaken risk analysis of an independence vote.


At Lloyds' annual general meeting in Edinburgh last month, new chairman Lord Blackwell said that it currently has no plans to move south, but went on to say that independence is a potential 'risk' to its business.


RBS has been even less specific, with chief executive Ross McEwan saying his bank could "adapt" in the event of a 'yes' vote.


Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, a man less concerned with offending voter's feelings, said it like it is in March, when he admitted what everyone else who has followed the situation knew all along – that RBS would have to move to England in the event of a 'Yes' vote.


But even the lacklustre comments of our banking brothers and sisters have seemed to have gone quiet in the last month.


Perhaps not wanting to follow CBI Scotland's path – the lobby group mistakenly registered itself in favour of the 'No' campaign – or perhaps for fear of alienating customers, Scottish businesses appear to have decided that staying out of the debate is the best option.


Perhaps as a result of this almost deafening silence, the Coalition has now turned its sights on large nationwide businesses with a consumer base.


In the last ten days, public affairs specialists at the UK's largest telecoms companies were called in to Downing Street to have the highlights of the 'Better Together' campaign spelt out to them.


Why not promote these highlights to your customers, came the mantra from the advisers – not politicians – who called the meeting.


The benefits of the union were presented for all to see, and those spoken to who were in attendance felt that the message was clear. Whereas previously the Government's two parties and Labour officials had spent time persuading Scottish businesses to speak up, now is the time for British – for which read English – businesses to speak up in favour of the union.


Of those spoken to, none is considering doing so, as far as I am aware, sensibly deciding not to venture into a highly toxic debate where companies who come out on the wrong side could be penalised by both individual and corporate customers should they not agree with the policies being espoused.


Although the meeting of political advisers and lobbyists is not remarkable – such things happy on a daily basis – the fact that the Government feels it now needs to have a stronger business voice in the pro-Union campaign is significant.


Even if the companies approached were to speak out, there is a high likelihood of the move backfiring. Better to stay silent, and assess the ramifications after the vote itself, rather than attempt to sway the vote and live to regret it.


Business and politics don't always make happy bed fellows. And in this instance, with such a short period until the vote, speaking up will only muddy the waters.


Chinese money keeps flowing in


As the Prime Ministers of Great Britain and China meet in London this week to hammer out all manner of things – from matters of trade to human rights – welcome news then that the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is close to receiving a British branch licence from the Prudential Regulation Authority.


The licence, though a major milestone, will be just one step on the road to the increasing Sinofication of the City of London.


While much will be made in the coming days of set-piece deals involving Chinese investment in to the UK – such summits are always a lightning rod for those who like to promote major deals – what is more important from a long-term economic perspective is the fact that the Square Mile is fast becoming the place for Chinese financial money flows outside the country itself.


The latest figures from the City of London Corporation show that the offshore remnimbi (RMB) market continues to grow significantly. A report covering January-June 2013 showed that trade related services stood at 3.3bn Yuan, boosted by British companies wanting to make trade payments in RMB.


Foreign exchange activity also increased, with spot trading in the first six months of 2013 close to double that of 2012, at a daily value of $4.8bn.


On Wednesday, to coincide with Li Keqiang's visit, the Corporation will release the latest statistics it has to hand.


Although the exact figures are not available, I am certain that they will only serve to cement London's position as the world's leading offshore RMB market.


The raft of regulatory changes introduced by the Chancellor last Autumn only serve to enhance this position.


Whatever the matters discussed at the bilateral summit, London's ever increasing internationalisation will continue apace, which, given the size and growth rate of the Chinese economy and those wanting to trade in its currency, is good for the residents not only of the Square Mile, but the whole of the United Kingdom.





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