Five Scottish referendum polls that could move the pound over the next week

Posted by Unknown on Thursday, September 11, 2014


Here’s the timeline:


September 11 – YouGov


September 17 – YouGov


September 17 – Survation


September 17 – ICM for the Scotsman Newspaper


September 17 – Ipsos Mori


Panelbase is also expected to release a poll, possibly this weekend, although the company declined to comment.


Voters are more likely to lean toward a No vote, suggested John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.


"Behaviourally, excepting periods of intense crisis, people will tend to go with the known rather than the unknown", said Mr Hardy.


"The most likely scenario is the uninteresting one: a clear No".


Over the past weeks, the pound has declined by around 6.6pc against the dollar, from its July peak of $1.7195.


Stocks exposed to Scotland have also weakened as various polls have shown that the break-up of the Union is more likely.


"Investors are rightly concerned", said Azad Zangana, European economist at Schroders, "especially as the uncertainty that a Yes outcome presents for not only Scotland, but also for the rest of the UK".


In the medium-term, Morgan Stanley are bearish on the pound, implying that they think it will weaken further.





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