Scottish referendum: Markets put chance of 'No' vote at 81pc

The broker's so-called 'binary trade' on Scottish independence, where investors bet on either a 'Yes' or 'No' outcome in this week's referendum, currently places far more probability on the 'No' vote.

But David Madden, market analyst at IG, said the Scottish referendum binary is "by far one of the most actively traded, most balanced flow" that the broker had ever seen, meaning that investors' predictions on the outcome are more deeply split than in past political events.

He also told the Telegraph that the broker had seen three to four times more trades made on the Scottish referendum binary than any political binary they had run before.

Trading volumes spiked in the last week and a half, he said, ever since a YouGov poll put the 'Yes' camp ahead 51-49 for the first time.

Subsequent polls have since returned the lead to the 'No' vote , but in every case, there are too few points in it to make a confident prediction.

IG has set the mid-price for a 'Yes' vote at 20 points, with the trade settling at 100 points should the Scots opt to leave the Union. This means investors stand to make big earnings should the Scots opt to leave the Union. Conversely, it has set the mid-price for a 'No' vote at 80 points, with the trade settling at 0 points should Scotland in fact vote 'Yes'.

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