But here’s another idea: National Insurance, which we all know is just income tax by another name.
There are any number of options for change here, not least the cut in employer NICS proposed by Policy Exchange.
Source: PA
That photo
11.32 It wouldn't be Budget day without the customary picture of the Chancellor holding up the red box.
Here is George Osborne a few minutes ago leaving Downing Street.
(Who had bet on a blue tie?)
Why not a lot has leaked
11.25 In years gone by much of what was to be said in the Budget was well known, but this time round has been different and has led to speculation as to what exactly is hiding in that red box (see 10.53).
So why has very little of this Budget been pre-briefed to broadcasters?
The Government asked for a review after the Evening Standard last year tweeted a picture of their front page, which had all the main points of the Budget, before Osborne had even stood up.
H/T to the Guardian's Patrick Wintour for this:
The main conclusion of the review was to ban the release of core Budget details.
In my view, the benefits of pre-release are likely to diminish the more tightly it is controlled.
This suggests to me that a ban on the release of the core of the Budget is the best way forward.
So now we know very little - but in little over an hour we will know a lot more.
No game changers expected in Budget on business taxation
11.00 That is the view of Ben Jones, tax expert at global law firm Eversheds:
For business, today’s Budget is not expected to deliver any game-changing announcements. The Chancellor’s rhetoric will be pro-business, particularly for smaller businesses, but the funds are not available to make some of the more significant changes that have been suggested by the likes of the CBI and IoD.
Alongside what small steps can be taken to incentivise business, there are anticipated to be many more low profile changes that target tax planning and tax structures that business may also need to consider.
Rabbit speculation
10.53 There has been a lot of speculation about what surprises may come out of today's budget.
Our senior political correspondent Steven Swinford has the details:
Feverish speculation in Westminster about what rabbit George Osborne will pull out of his hat today. Sources tell The Sun's Political Editor, Tom Newton Dunn, that it will be a 'radical and liberalising move on personal tax'.
Some are suggesting he could raise the national insurance threshold, but the estimated £5.4bn cost could put him off.
Others are suggesting he could steal the Liberal Democrat's thunder and raise the personal allowance to £12,500, instead of the expected £10,500, while some hacks are saying (rather optimistically) he could finally live up to his 2009 pledge to cut inheritance tax.
One thing he won't be doing is bowing to the demands of furious Tory MPs to raise the 40p rate threshold. Unless he can find the middle-classes another sweetener, Mr Osborne is likely to face an angry response from his back-benchers.
Nick Clegg in front of a pasty shop
10.47 Do you think the Lib Dem leader is trying to make a point?
The Telegraph's political correspondent Georgia Graham thinks he might be:
What possible point could Nick Clegg be making as he speaks to BBC News in front of a pasty shop... after 2012's pasty tax fiasco... and he's been hinting at a higher personal allowance entitlement.
I am very clear: I want to see us, where possible, raise the personal allowance further still so that people get some money back in their pockets.
Employment rises to record high
10.40 The full story of the jobs numbers and also the Bank of England's MPC minutes are now live.
The jobs numbers reveal that just over 30 million people are now in jobs, up by 459,000 on a year ago , the highest figure since records began in 1971.
Employment minister Esther McVey welcomed the jobs figures on BBC News:
Very good news, again; the employment rate is at an all-time high since 2008, unemployment continues to fall and what you've seen there with youth unemployment has gone down for six months. So everything is going in the right direction and businesses are feeling confident to take people on.
Meanwhile, Bank of England policymakers concluded that Britain's economic recovery is broadening but has some way to go before it is sustainable.
Pound jumps after Bank of England MPC minutes
10.21 The MPC minutes are out and reveal that the policymakers have said the pound’s strength is putting downward pressure on inflation and there’s a risk of further increases as the economy recovers.
The Bank said in the minutes:
Sterling had appreciated by another 1.5pc during the month, and it was possible that this gradual appreciation would continue if prospects in the U.K. continued to be seen as increasingly favorable relative to those of it’s main trading partners.
The Committee also said the pound has appreciated as investors seek "safe assets following intensification of political tensions between Ukraine and Russia".
Britain’s currency reached the highest level since November 2009 versus the dollar last month amid signs the nation’s recovery is building momentum.
The Bank went on to say in the minutes that the political situation in Ukraine was "serious and the economy itself was fragile", but that the impact on the UK should be limited.
The direct trade and financial linkages between the United Kingdom and Ukraine were limited, so the most important impact from a more serious deterioration in the situation there would probably come from any general rise in risk premia and via commodity markets - in particular the prices of gas, oil, and grains. Those prices had increased a little in the days leading up to the Committee’s meeting as tensions with Russia had escalated.
Source: Bloomberg
Number of people in work increases in the UK
09.53 George Osborne will be pleased with the jobs statistics that have just been released by the Office for National Statistics.
The number of people in work increased by 105,000 on the quarter and by 459,000 on the year to reach 30.19 million for November 2013 to January 2014.
There was also a fall in the number of people out of work, down 69,000 on the quarter.
There was also a slight increase in total pay (including bonuses), with annual growth of 1.4pc in average weekly earnings.
Overall the unemployment rate held steady at 7.2pc.
But single month unemployment rate dipped below 7pc - but it is worth noting that single month data can be volatile and is subject to revisions.
If the euro and the UK's 50p had offspring.....
09.39 That is the view of Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith on the new £1 coin that will be announced in the Budget today.
The new £1 coin
MPs reserving their seats already
09.29 It's the hottest ticket in town...apparently. MPs have been into the House of Commons early this morning to make sure they get the best seats for today's Budget, our political correspondent Georgia Graham has pointed out to me.
Red Box Rap Battle
09.23 Sky News has commissioned a funny promo video ahead of the Budget, pitting the leaders of the three main parties against each other. It is well worth a watch.
House price boom looms in London and South East - Lib Dems
09.16 Lord Oakeshott, the Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman in the House of Lords from 2001 to 2011 spoke to BBC News.
He warned that London and the South East are facing a "really runaway, raging house price boom" which he described as a "real problem" for people who want to get on the housing ladder.
The Chancellor's Help to buy policy was a "good idea" but it needs to be "refocused" into the regions instead of subsidising people buying expensive London houses.
Lord Oakeshott also dismissed the calls from backbench Conservative MPs to reduce the number of people paying the 40p tax rate to ease pressures on middle income earners saying that people were not being "dragged in" to the rate.
He said:
They're not dragged in - they're in that rate partly because they're saving money at the bottom. So you or I, who presumably are paying the higher rate, we're not starting to pay tax until we get to higher levels so overall we are still better off.
But the help must be focused on the people who need it. Don't forget: there are 30m taxpayers in this country and less than 5m of them pay nat the 40p or higher rate so they are not the top priority.
European markets slip in early trading
09.09 Markets have slipped into the red in early trading.
In London the FTSE 100 is down 0.34pc, in Germany the Dax is down 0.11pc and in France the Cac is down 0.36pc.
Jonathan Sudaria, dealer at Capital Spreads, says the market movements have more to do with the US Fed minutes.
European equities have opened fairly flat this morning as traders hunker down before the FOMC statement tonight. Expectations are for another $10 billion taper and markets seem quite comfortable with this but, like Mark Carney, Janet Yellen is also expected to abandon forward guidance for some form of fuzzy guidance.
As the US unemployment rate teeters near the FOMC’s threshold of 6.5pc, like Mark Carney and the MPC, she will be looking for a less restrictive monetary tightening line in the sand i.e. a way of keeping rates accommodative for as long as she sees fit.
Cost of living crisis should be priority - Miliband
08.51 Leaving his house this morning Ed Miliband was interviewed and said the "top priority" for the Budget is the cost of living crisis.
Today's going to see a contrast between a Conservative budget that claims our economy is fixed and family budgets that are £1,600 a year worse off since the general election. That's why the top priority for the Budget today has to be the so-called cost of living crisis that so many millions of families are facing.
I hope we don't see complacency from the Chancellor today, because I think so many families across the country are incredibly hard-pressed; they're seeing their wages falling, they faced 24 Tory tax rises since 2010. What I hope we see from the Chancellor is an understanding of the difficulties families are facing and a response to make life easier and better for them.
Labour attacks Conservatives for helping the wealthy
08.42 In the latest tweet from Labour, the opposition party not-so-subtly says the Conservatives have only been helping those who earn more than £150,000.
Source: @UKLabour
It's not all about the Budget
08.24 I realise this is the Budget live blog, but I did just want to point out that there are some other bits of news coming out today.
At 9.30am the Bank of England will release the latest minutes from its Monetary Policy Committee - the language used will be scrutinised for any clues as to how the central bank views the economic recovery, the risks to that recovery and when interest rates may rise.
Also at 9.30am the UK's latest job stats will be out.
Over in the US the Federal Reserve is also releasing the latest minutes from its last monetary policy meeting (FOMC) - markets are expecting another $10bn taper to its monthly bond-buying programme.
Families are £1,600 worse off, says Labour
08.18 Unsurprisingly Labour will make sure the Conservatives do not get all the attention today.
The opposition party is unveiling a Budget poster in London and Birmingham today that will claim "hard-working people are £1,600 worse off with the Tories".
Labour leader Ed Miliband has taken to Twitter this morning to say just that:
While Labour Twitter feed posted:
The picture in both tweets is this (and I would also guess this is what the poster will look like):
Source: @Labour
Who would make a better Chancellor?
08.10 With an election looming next year this is the last Budget in which Osborne can really make a difference.
But who do you want to be Chancellor? YouGov has done a poll as to whether the incumbent George Osborne is the preferred candidate or his rival, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, is. Results are in:
more
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