Rates need to go up, says Bank 'dove' David Miles

Posted by Unknown on Sunday, June 22, 2014


“This is more a case of scaling back the emergency medicine as the patient begins their recovery, rather than invasive surgery to deal with a sudden, life-threatening illness,” he said.


Inflation fell to 1.5pc in May, from 1.8pc in April. Prices rises have remained at or below the Bank of England’s 2pc target for six consecutive months, in what many economists have described as the UK hitting a “sweet spot” of accelerating growth and low inflation.


Mr Miles said slow wage growth suggested enough “slack” remained in the economy for the Bank to keep rates on hold in the immediate future, reinforcing the market view that rates will start to rise around the time of November’s Inflation Report.


The economics professor also said it was “wildly unlikely” that interest rates would return to pre-crisis levels of around 5pc. He said record low rates had increased the gap between the official interest rate and mortgage costs for consumers, suggesting that the Bank would not have to raise rates back up to pre-crisis levels to keep inflation close to target.


Mr Miles joined the MPC during the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, and has never voted to raise interest rates. Between November 2012 and June 2013, he called for an increase the bank’s stock of asset purchases by £25bn to £400bn, and is considered to be among the MPC members most concerned that an early rate rise could constrain growth.


Several of the Bank’s policymakers have been laying the ground for rate rises to begin this year, including fellow MPC member Ian McCafferty and Andy Haldane, the Bank’s new chief economist


On Sunday, however, Sir Mike Rake, president of the CBI, said the Bank should not raise interest rates this year because of the negative impact on exports. The strength of the pound was already causing problems, he said, arguing that an early rise would increase its value further, making British goods and services more expensive.





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