Betting got Scottish vote rights years ago

Betfair’s punters never attributed more than a 30pc chance of victory to Alex Salmond’s Yes campaign.

Ladbrokes took its first bet on the referendum in January 2012 and No remained an odds-on favourite throughout.

The polls offered a different story. Panic spread at Westminster on Sept 7, when a YouGov survey suggested for the first time that Scotland might vote Yes. While subsequent polls showed that Better Together had regained some ground, the indications were that the result would be close.

The mismatch between the betting markets and the polls echoed the 1995 Quebec separation referendum in Canada. Prof Leighton Vaughan Williams, director of the political forecasting unit at Nottingham Business School, said the Quebec polls showed a late swing to the Yes campaign. On the day of the vote, the pro-separation camp was averaging a 6pc lead. “In the event, No won by 1pc,” Prof Williams said.

The betting markets also proved more accurate over the 2012 US presidential election. Leading pollsters had Mitt Romney set for victory but the betting markets had Barack Obama as the clear favourite.

“Basically, people who bet on the outcome have access to all the polling evidence and the traders’ actions take into account past experience of how good different pollsters are, what tends to happen to the undecideds when they actually vote and even inside information on what news events are likely to drive the agenda between the dates of the latest polling survey and polling day itself,” Prof Williams said.

James Midmer, a spokesman for Betfair, says the polls are crucial to the election process and without them, the betting markets wouldn’t function as well but he points out that many people who bet through the exchange are wagering large sums – one Londoner bet £55,000 on No – and are sophisticated traders, who study the evidence carefully. Emotion rarely comes into it.

“In this instance, while there were a number of small individual bets going on Yes, the serious money was going on No,” he said.

Of course the betting markets may one day get it wrong but already they are sorting out the odds for the next match.

The Betfair Exchange is attributing a 42pc chance to no overall majority in the next general election and the Conservatives only have a 35pc chance of victory.

Time will tell if the money turns out to be right again.

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